Saturday, December 31, 2022

Few Strategies for Making Better Group Decisions

 When it comes to solving tough business problems, you likely bring it to core group. After all, more minds are better than one, right? may be not. Larger pools of knowledge are by no means a guarantee of better outcomes. Because of an over-reliance on hierarchy, an instinct to prevent dissent, and a desire to preserve harmony, many groups fall into groupthink

Misunderstood expert opinions can quickly distort a group decision. Individual biases can easily spread across the group and lead to outcomes far outside individual preferences. And most of these processes occur subconsciously. This doesn’t mean that groups shouldn’t make decisions together, but you do need to create the right process for doing so. Based on behavioral and decision science research and years of application experience, we have identified seven simple strategies for more effective group decision making:

Keep the group small when you need to make an important decision. Large groups are much more likely to make biased decisions. For example, research shows that groups with seven or more members are more susceptible to confirmation bias. The larger the group, the greater the tendency for its members to research and evaluate information in a way that is consistent with pre-existing information and beliefs. By keeping the group to between three and five people, a size that people naturally gravitate toward when interacting, you can reduce these negative effects while still benefitting from multiple perspectives.

Choose a heterogenous group over a homogenous one (most of the time). Various studies have found that groups consisting of individuals with homogeneous opinions and beliefs have a greater tendency toward biased decision making. Teams that have potentially opposing points of view can more effectively counter biases. However, context matters. When trying to complete complex tasks that require diverse skills and perspectives, such as conducting research and designing processes, heterogeneous groups may substantially outperform homogeneous ones. But in repetitive tasks, requiring convergent thinking in structured environments, such as adhering to safety procedures in flying or healthcare, homogenous groups often do better. As a leader, you need first to understand the nature of the decision you’re asking the group to make before you assemble a suitable team.

Appoint a strategic dissenter (or even two). One way to counter undesirable groupthink tendencies in teams is to appoint a “devil’s advocate.” This person is tasked with acting as a counterforce to the group’s consensus. Research shows that empowering at least one person with the right to challenge the team’s decision making process can lead to significant improvements in decision quality and outcomes. For larger groups with seven or more members, appoint at least two devil’s advocates to be sure that a sole strategic dissenter isn’t isolated by the rest of the group as a disruptive troublemaker.

We Collect opinions independently. The collective knowledge of a group is only an advantage if it’s used properly. To get the most out of your team’s diverse capabilities, we recommend gathering opinions individually before people share their thoughts within the wider group. You can ask team members to record their ideas independently and anonymously in a shared document, for example. Then ask the group to assess the proposed ideas, again independently and anonymously, without assigning any of the suggestions to particular team members. By following such an iterative process teams can counter biases and resist groupthink. This process also makes sure that perceived seniority, alleged expertise, or hidden agendas don’t play a role in what the group decides to do.

We can Provide a safe space to speak up. If you want people to share opinions and engage in constructive dissent, they need to feel they can speak up without fear of retribution. Actively encourage reflection on and discussion of divergent opinions, doubts, and experiences in a respectful manner. There are  three basic elements required to create a safe space and harness a group’s diversity most effectively. First, focus feedback on the decision or discussed strategy, not on the individual. Second, express comments as a suggestion, not as a mandate. Third, express feedback in a way that shows you empathize with and appreciate the individuals working toward your joint goal.

We Don’t over-rely on experts. Experts can help groups make more informed decisions. However, blind trust in expert opinions can make a group susceptible to biases and distort the outcome. Research demonstrates that making them part of the decision-making can sway the team to adapt their opinions to those of the expert or make overconfident judgments. Therefore, invite experts to provide their opinion on a clearly defined topic, and position them as informed outsiders in relation to the group.

We Share collective responsibility. Finally, the outcome of a decision may be influenced by elements as simple as the choice of the group’s messenger. We often observe one single individual being responsible for selecting suitable group members, organizing the agenda, and communicating the results. When this is the case, individual biases can easily influence the decision of an entire team. Research shows that such negative tendencies can be effectively counteracted if different roles are assigned to different group members, based on their expertise. Moreover, all members should feel accountable for the group’s decision making process and its final outcome. One way to do that is to ask the team to sign a joint responsibility statement at the outset, leading to a more balanced distribution of power and a more open exchange of ideas.

Following these steps doesn’t guarantee a great decision. However, the better the quality of the decision-making process and the interaction between the group members, the greater your chances of reaching a successful outcome.

It can be really intimidating to make good decisions when you're leading today's complex teams. By complex, I mean you have team members with different expertise or sometimes even different geographic locations, sometimes shifting team members. So it's messy. But still you have to make the decisions, and you have to make them knowing that they may not be perfect.

Don't worry. You can help your team make a good decision if you follow a few simple best practices, and these best practices will help you overcome some of the pitfalls of diverse complex teams. So for instance, one pitfall is what's called the common information effect. Now this happens when diverse experts come together to make a decision, and they all bring different pieces of the puzzle. What happens, inexplicably in a way, is that they end up spending all their time talking about the common information, that little bit of information that everybody knew on the way in rather than sharing their unique bits of information.

Quite often, making a good decision requires using that unique information. This, of course, can be overcome with good leadership, with the ability to lead a good decision--making process. A few best practices: start with really inviting people one voice at a time to share their thoughts, their ideas, their expertise relative to this issue or this decision. Inquire into any sources of confusion or puzzlement or ambiguity. Make sure that we're on the same page. Make sure that people understand each other.

Then start to come to a consensus of what these different bits may mean for the possible decision or course of action and consider how what we're coming up with might play out down the road. You know, think about the implications. And then finally, really check around the room for agreement or possible dissent around the decision that seems to be emerging.

Dissent is OK. Some dissent is almost inevitable, because people have such different expertise. We have to just figure out what amount -- and this is a leadership task -- of dissent we can live with. The dissent comes from the uncertainty. So what we need to do is get out there and act, try things out, so we can learn more, and that will by itself reduce some of the uncertainty.


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